Simple genetic models for autism spectrum disorder
Swagatam Mukhopadhyay , Michael Wigler , Dan Levy
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/017301

To explore the interplay between new mutation, transmission, and gender bias in genetic disease requires formal quantitative modeling. Autism spectrum disorders offer an ideal case: they are genetic in origin, complex, and show a gender bias. The high reproductive costs of autism ensure that most strongly associated genetic mutations are short-lived, and indeed the disease exhibits both transmitted and de novo components. There is a large body of both epidemiologic and genomic data that greatly constrain the genetic mechanisms that may contribute to the disorder. We develop a computational framework that assumes classes of additive variants, each member of a class having equal effect. We restrict our initial exploration to single class models, each having three parameters. Only one model matches epidemiological data. It also independently matches the incidence of de novo mutation in simplex families, the gender bias in unaffected siblings in simplex populations, and rates of mutation in target genes. This model makes strong and as yet not fully tested predictions, namely that females are the primary carriers in cases of genetic transmission, and that the incidence of de novo mutation in target genes for families at high risk for autism are not especially elevated. In its simplicity, this model does not account for MZ twin concordance or the distorted gender bias of high functioning children with ASD, and does not accommodate all the known mechanisms contributing to ASD. We point to the next steps in applying the same computational framework to explore more complex models.

A simple biophysical model predicts more rapid accumulation of hybrid incompatibilities in small populations
Bhavin S. Khatri, Richard A. Goldstein
Comments: 13 pages, 6 figures
Subjects: Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)

Speciation is fundamental to the huge diversity of life on Earth. Evidence suggests reproductive isolation arises most commonly in allopatry with a higher speciation rate in small populations. Current theory does not address this dependence in the important weak mutation regime. Here, we examine a biophysical model of speciation based on the binding of a protein transcription factor to a DNA binding site, and how their independent co-evolution, in a stabilizing landscape, of two allopatric lineages leads to incompatibilities. Our results give a new prediction for the monomorphic regime of evolution, consistent with data, that smaller populations should develop incompatibilities more quickly. This arises as: 1) smaller populations having a greater initial drift load, as there are more sequences that bind poorly than well, so fewer substitutions are needed to reach incompatible regions of phenotype space; 2) slower divergence when the population size is larger than the inverse of discrete differences in fitness. Further, we find longer sequences develop incompatibilities more quickly at small population sizes, but more slowly at large population sizes. The biophysical model thus represents a robust mechanism of rapid reproductive isolation for small populations and large sequences, that does not require peak-shifts or positive selection.