The evolution of genetic diversity in changing environments

The evolution of genetic diversity in changing environments

Oana Carja, Uri Liberman, Marcus W. Feldman

The production and maintenance of genetic and phenotypic diversity under temporally fluctuating selection and the signatures of environmental and selective volatility in the patterns of genetic and phenotypic variation have been important areas of focus in population genetics. On one hand, stretches of constant selection pull the genetic makeup of populations towards local fitness optima. On the other, in order to cope with changes in the selection regime, populations may evolve mechanisms that create a diversity of genotypes. By tuning the rates at which variability is produced, such as the rates of recombination, mutation or migration, populations may increase their long-term adaptability. Here we use theoretical models to gain insight into how the rates of these three evolutionary forces are shaped by fluctuating selection. We compare and contrast the evolution of recombination, mutation and migration under similar patterns of environmental change and show that these three sources of phenotypic variation are surprisingly similar in their response to changing selection. We show that knowing the shape, size, variance and asymmetry of environmental runs is essential for accurate prediction of genetic evolutionary dynamics.

A novel Bayesian method for inferring and interpreting the dynamics of adaptive landscapes from phylogenetic comparative data

A novel Bayesian method for inferring and interpreting the dynamics of adaptive landscapes from phylogenetic comparative data

Josef C Uyeda, Luke J Harmon

Our understanding of macroevolutionary patterns of adaptive evolution has greatly increased with the advent of large-scale phylogenetic comparative methods. Widely used Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) models can describe an adaptive process of divergence and selection. However, inference of the dynamics of adaptive landscapes from comparative data is complicated by interpretational difficulties, lack of identifiability among parameter values and the common requirement that adaptive hypotheses must be assigned a priori. Here we develop a reversible-jump Bayesian method of fitting multi-optima OU models to phylogenetic comparative data that estimates the placement and magnitude of adaptive shifts directly from the data. We show how biologically informed hypotheses can be tested against this inferred posterior of shift locations using Bayes Factors to establish whether our a priori models adequately describe the dynamics of adaptive peak shifts. Furthermore, we show how the inclusion of informative priors can be used to restrict models to biologically realistic parameter space and test particular biological interpretations of evolutionary models. We argue that Bayesian model-fitting of OU models to comparative data provides a framework for integrating of multiple sources of biological data–such as microevolutionary estimates of selection parameters and paleontological timeseries–allowing inference of adaptive landscape dynamics with explicit, process-based biological interpretations.

Soft selective sweeps in complex demographic scenarios

Soft selective sweeps in complex demographic scenarios

Benjamin A Wilson, Dmitri Petrov, Philipp W Messer

Recent studies have shown that adaptation from de novo mutation often produces so-called soft selective sweeps, where adaptive mutations of independent mutational origin sweep through the population at the same time. Population genetic theory predicts that soft sweeps should be likely if the product of the population size and the mutation rate towards the adaptive allele is sufficiently large, such that multiple adaptive mutations can establish before one has reached fixation; however, it remains unclear how demographic processes affect the probability of observing soft sweeps. Here we extend the theory of soft selective sweeps to realistic demographic scenarios that allow for changes in population size over time. We first show that population bottlenecks can lead to the removal of all but one adaptive lineage from an initially soft selective sweep. The parameter regime under which such ‘hardening’ of soft selective sweeps is likely is determined by a simple heuristic condition. We further develop a generalized analytical framework, based on an extension of the coalescent process, for calculating the probability of soft sweeps under arbitrary demographic scenarios. Two important limits emerge within this analytical framework: In the limit where population size fluctuations are fast compared to the duration of the sweep, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the harmonic mean of the variance effective population size estimated over the duration of the sweep; in the opposing slow fluctuation limit, the likelihood of soft sweeps is determined by the instantaneous variance effective population size at the onset of the sweep. We show that as a consequence of this finding the probability of observing soft sweeps becomes a function of the strength of selection. Specifically, in species with sharply fluctuating population size, strong selection is more likely to produce soft sweeps than weak selection. Our results highlight the importance of accurate demographic estimates over short evolutionary timescales for understanding the population genetics of adaptation from de novo mutation.

Author post: VSEAMS: A pipeline for variant set enrichment analysis using summary GWAS data identifies IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA as key transcription factors in type 1 diabetes

This guest post is by Olly Burren and Chris Wallace on their preprint, VSEAMS: A pipeline for variant set enrichment analysis using summary GWAS data identifies IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA as key transcription factors in type 1 diabetes, arXived here.

The idea for this paper came from reading a study by Liu et al. ( http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0002929710003125) and the fact that summary p values from genome wide association studies are increasingly becoming publicly available. In the field of human disease, genome-wide association studies have been very successful in isolating regions of the genome that confer disease susceptibility. The next step however, is to understand mechanistically exactly how variation in these loci gives rise to this susceptibility. There are a myriad of pre-existing methods available for integrating genetic and genomic datasets, however things are complicated by the high degree of linkage disequilibrium that exists, which causes substantial inflation in the variance of any test statistic. This inter-SNP correlation must be taken into account, classically by permuting case/control status and recomputing association, requiring access to raw genotyping data. Indeed, this approach was taken in our previously published method see Heing et al. (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v467/n7314/full/nature09386.html) which uses a non-parametric test to compare distribution of GWAS p values from two sets of SNPs (“test” and “control”). As most researchers working with GWAS know gaining access to raw genotyping data is often difficult, and then how to include meta-analysis and imputed data? Liu et al., got around this by estimating the inter-SNP correlation using public datasets and sampling from a multivariate normal to generate simulated p values, analogous to the permuted p values possible with permuting phenotype status when raw data are available. VEGAS uses genotype data publicly available through the International HapMap project and aims to integrate GWAS results with trans eQTLs to identify causal disease genes.

Our thought was that by combining our previously published method, with the VEGAS approach, we could create a novel approach that would allow the integration of genetic information from GWAS with functional information from for example a set of micro-array experiments, crucially without the need for genotype information. The rationale being that it would help to prioritise future mechanistic studies, which can be costly and time-consuming to conduct. We also upped the stakes, and decided to use 1000 Genomes Project genotyping information for our estimations, to allow application to dense-genotyping technologies. The result was a software pipeline that takes as input a gene set of interest, a matched ‘control’ set and a summary set of GWAS statistics and computes an enrichment score.

Note that this approach differs from the Bayesian model suggested by Pickrell (https://haldanessieve.org/2013/12/16/author-post-joint-analysis-of-functional-genomic-data-and-genome-wide-association-studies-of-18-human-traits) as it focuses on comparing broad regions, rather than on considering more targeted genomic annotation, and in that sense is perhaps more akin to pathway analysis, although we do suggest that functionally defined genes sets, such as those found by knock down experiments in cell lines, may be more productive than using manually annotated pathways whose completeness can vary considerably.

To illustrate the method we applied it to a large meta-analysis GWAS study of type 1 diabetes (8000 case vs 8000 controls), and an interesting dataset examining the effect on gene-expression of knocking down a series of 59 transcription factors in a lymphoblastoid cell line see Cusanovich et al (http://www.plosgenetics.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pgen.1004226). We identified three transcription factors, IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA, whose putative targets are significantly enriched for variation associated with type 1 diabetes susceptibility. IKZF3 overlaps a known type 1 diabetes susceptibility region, whereas BATF and ESRRA overlap other autoimmune susceptibility regions, validating our approach. Of course there are caveats interpreting results derived from cell lines, however we think it’s promising that our top hit lies in a region already associated with type 1 diabetes susceptibility.
Using the quantities already computed, once enrichment is detected, we implemented a simple technique to prioritise genes within the set. This allows the generation of a succinct list of genes that are responsible for the enrichment detected on the global level. Cross referenced with other information these can either be informative in their own right or be used to inform future studies.

This study is also an example of the preprint process speeding up scientific discovery. We knew about the Cusanovich dataset because they released a preprint on arXiv, which was caught by Haldane’s Sieve (https://haldanessieve.org/2013/10/22/the-functional-consequences-of-variation-in-transcription-factor-binding/) in October 2013. One email, and the authors kindly shared their complete results. Had we waited for it to be published in PLoS Genetics in March 2014, we’d have been five months behind where we are.

The major benefit is that all of the datasets employed are within the public domain. Our hope is that either this or other methods in the same vein will help to bridge the gap between GWAS and disease mechanisms, ultimately fuelling the development of new therapeutics.

VSEAMS: A pipeline for variant set enrichment analysis using summary GWAS data identifies IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA as key transcription factors in type 1 diabetes

VSEAMS: A pipeline for variant set enrichment analysis using summary GWAS data identifies IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA as key transcription factors in type 1 diabetes

Oliver S Burren, Hui Guo, Chris Wallace
(Submitted on 17 Apr 2014)

Motivation: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many loci implicated in disease susceptibility. Integration of GWAS summary statistics (p values) and functional genomic datasets should help to elucidate mechanisms. Results: We describe the extension of a previously described non-parametric method to test whether GWAS signals are enriched in functionally defined loci to a situation where only GWAS p values are available. The approach is implemented in VSEAMS, a freely available software pipeline. We use VSEAMS to integrate functional gene sets defined via transcription factor knock down experiments with GWAS results for type 1 diabetes and find variant set enrichment in gene sets associated with IKZF3, BATF and ESRRA. IKZF3 lies in a known T1D susceptibility region, whilst BATF and ESRRA overlap other immune disease susceptibility regions, validating our approach and suggesting novel avenues of research for type 1 diabetes. Availability and implementation: VSEAMS is available for download this http URL

Gradual divergence and diversification of mammalian duplicate gene functions

Gradual divergence and diversification of mammalian duplicate gene functions

Raquel Assis, Doris Bachtrog

Gene duplication provides raw material for the evolution of functional innovation. We recently developed a phylogenetic method to classify the evolutionary processes underlying the retention and functional evolution of duplicate genes by quantifying divergence of their gene expression profiles. Here, we apply our method to pairs of duplicate genes in eight mammalian genomes, using data from 11 distinct tissues to construct spatial gene expression profiles. We find that young mammalian duplicates are often functionally conserved, and that functional divergence gradually increases with evolutionary distance between species. Examination of expression patterns in genes with conserved and new functions supports the ?out-of-testes? hypothesis, in which new genes arise with testis-specific functions and acquire functions in other tissues over time. While new functions tend to be tissue-specific, there is no bias toward expression in any particular tissue. Thus, duplicate genes acquire a diversity of functions outside of the testes, possibly contributing to the origin of a multitude of complex phenotypes during mammalian evolution.

Identifying the genetic basis of antigenic change in influenza A(H1N1)

Identifying the genetic basis of antigenic change in influenza A(H1N1)

William T. Harvey, Victoria Gregory, Donald J. Benton, James P. J. Hall, Rodney S. Daniels, Trevor Bedford, Daniel T. Haydon, Alan J. Hay, John W. McCauley, Richard Reeve
(Submitted on 16 Apr 2014)

Determining phenotype from genetic data is a fundamental challenge for virus research. Identification of emerging antigenic variants among circulating influenza viruses is critical to the vaccine virus selection process, with effectiveness maximized when vaccine constituents are antigenically matched to circulating viruses. Generally, antigenic similarity of viruses is assessed by the haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay. We present models that define key antigenic determinants by identifying substitutions that significantly affect antigenic phenotype assessed using HI assay. Sequences of 506 haemagglutinin (HA) proteins from seasonal influenza A(H1N1) isolates and reference viruses, spanning over a decade, with complementary HI data and a crystallographic structure were analysed. We identified substitutions at fifteen surface-exposed positions as causing changes in antigenic phenotype of HA. At four positions the antigenic impact of substitutions was apparent at multiple points in the phylogeny, while eleven further sites were resolved by identifying branches containing antigenicity-changing events and determining the substitutions responsible by ancestral state reconstruction. Reverse genetics was used to demonstrate the causal effect on antigenicity of a subset of substitutions including one instance where multiple contemporaneous substitutions made a definitive identification impossible in silico. This technique quantifies the impact of specific amino acid substitutions allowing us to make predictions of antigenic distance, increasing the value of new genetic sequence data for monitoring antigenic drift and phenotypic evolution. It demonstrates the generality of an approach originally developed for foot-and-mouth disease virus that could be extended to other established and emerging influenza virus subtypes as well as other antigenically variable pathogens.

Asymptotic expression for the fixation probability of a mutant in star graphs

Asymptotic expression for the fixation probability of a mutant in star graphs

Fabio A. C. C. Chalub
(Submitted on 15 Apr 2014)

We consider the Moran process in a graph called “star” and obtain the asymptotic expression for the fixation probability of a single mutant when the size of the graph is large. The expression obtained corrects previously known expression announced in reference [E Lieberman, C Hauert, and MA Nowak. Evolutionary dynamics on graphs. Nature, 433(7023):312-316, 2005] and further studied in [M. Broom and J. Rychtar. An analysis of the fixation probability of a mutant on special classes of non-directed graphs. Proc. R. Soc. A-Math. Phys. Eng. Sci., 464(2098):2609-2627, 2008]. We also show that the star graph is an accelerator of evolution, if the graph is large enough.

Historical contingency and entrenchment in protein evolution under purifying selection

Historical contingency and entrenchment in protein evolution under purifying selection

Premal Shah, Joshua B. Plotkin
(Submitted on 15 Apr 2014)

The fitness contribution of an allele at one genetic site may depend on the states of other sites, a phenomenon known as epistasis. Epistasis can profoundly influence the process of evolution in populations under selection, and shape the course of protein evolution across divergent species. Whereas epistasis among adaptive substitutions has been the subject of extensive study, relatively little is known about epistasis under purifying selection. Here we use mechanistic models of thermodynamic stability in a ligand-binding protein to explore computationally the structure of epistatic interactions among substitutions that fix in protein sequences under purifying selection. We find that the selection coefficients of mutations that are nearly neutral when they fix are highly conditional on the presence of preceding mutations. In addition, substitutions which are initially neutral become increasingly entrenched over time due to antagonistic epistasis with subsequent substitutions. Our evolutionary model includes insertions and deletions, as well as point mutations, which allows us to quantify epistasis between these classes of mutations, and also to study the evolution of protein length. We find that protein length remains largely constant over time, because indels are more deleterious than point mutations. Our results imply that, even under purifying selection, protein sequence evolution is highly contingent on history and it cannot be predicted by the phenotypic effects of mutations introduced into the wildtype sequence alone.

Bayesian Neural Networks for Genetic Association Studies of Complex Disease

Bayesian Neural Networks for Genetic Association Studies of Complex Disease

Andrew L. Beam, Alison Motsinger-Reif, Jon Doyle
(Submitted on 15 Apr 2014)

Discovering causal genetic variants from large genetic association studies poses many difficult challenges. Assessing which genetic markers are involved in determining trait status is a computationally demanding task, especially in the presence of gene-gene interactions. A non-parametric Bayesian approach in the form of a Bayesian neural network is proposed for use in analyzing genetic association studies. Demonstrations on synthetic and real data reveal they are able to efficiently and accurately determine which variants are involved in determining case-control status. Using graphics processing units (GPUs) the time needed to build these models is decreased by several orders of magnitude. In comparison with commonly used approaches for detecting interactions, Bayesian neural networks perform very well across a broad spectrum of possible genetic relationships. The proposed framework is shown to be powerful at detecting causal SNPs while having the computational efficiency needed handle large datasets.