Majority rule has transition ratio 4 on Yule trees under a 2-state symmetric model

Elchanan Mossel, Mike Steel
(Submitted on 10 Apr 2014)

Inferring the ancestral state at the root of a phylogenetic tree from states observed at the leaves is a problem arising in evolutionary biology. The simplest technique — majority rule — estimates the root state by the most frequently occurring state at the leaves. Alternative methods — such as maximum parsimony – explicitly take the tree structure into account. Since either method can outperform the other on particular trees, it is useful to consider the accuracy of the methods on trees generated under some evolutionary null model, such as a Yule pure-birth model. In this short note, we answer a recently posed question concerning the performance of majority rule on Yule trees under a symmetric 2-state Markovian substitution model of character state change. We show that majority rule is accurate precisely when the ratio of the birth (speciation) rate of the Yule process to the substitution rate exceeds the value 4. By contrast, maximum parsimony has been shown to be accurate only when this ratio is at least 6. Our proof relies on a second moment calculation, coupling, and a novel application of a reflection principle.

Estimating Phylogeny from microRNA Data: A Critical Appraisal

Robert Thomson, David Plachetzki, Luke Mahler, Brian Moore

As progress toward a highly resolved tree of life continues to expose nodes that resist resolution, interest in new sources of phylogenetic information that are informative for these most difficult relationships continues to increase. One such potential source of information, the presence and absence of microRNA families, has been vigorously promoted as an ideal phylogenetic marker and has been recently deployed to resolve several long-standing phylogenetic questions. Understanding the utility of such markers for phylogenetic inference hinges on developing a better understanding for how such markers behave under suitable evolutionary models, as well as how they perform in real inference scenarios. However, as yet, no study has rigorously characterized the statistical behavior or utility of these markers. Here we examine the behavior and performance of microRNA presence/absence data under a variety of evolutionary models and reexamine datasets from several previous studies. We find that highly heterogeneous rates of microRNA gain and loss, pervasive secondary loss, and sampling error collectively render microRNA-based inference of phylogeny difficult, and fundamentally alter the conclusions for four of the five studies that we re-examine. Our results indicate that miRNA data have far less phylogenetic utility in resolving the tree of life than is currently recognized and we urge ample caution in their interpretation.

Bias and measurement error in comparative analyses: a case study with the Ornstein Uhlenbeck model

Gavin Huw Thomas, Natalie Cooper, Chris Venditti, Andrew Meade, Robert P Freckleton

Phylogenetic comparative methods are increasingly used to give new insight into variation, causes and consequences of trait variation among species. The foundation of these methods is a suite of models that attempt to capture evolutionary patterns by extending the Brownian constant variance model. However, the parameters of these models have been hypothesised to be biased and only asymptotically behave in a statistically predictable way as datasets become large. This does not seem to be widely appreciated. We show that a commonly used model in evolutionary biology (the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model) is biased over a wide range of conditions. Many studies fitting this model use datasets that are small and prone to substantial biases. Our results suggest that simulating fitted models and comparing with empirical results is critical when fitting OU and other extensions of the Brownian model.